Donald Trump Returns to White House: World Leaders Who Stand to Gain or Lose from His Comeback

In the realm of global politics, few figures stir up as much debate as Donald Trump. His four years in the White House changed the landscape of U.S. diplomacy, often through bold, unconventional decisions. From pulling out of international agreements to reshaping alliances, Trump’s approach shook up the established order and left a mark on world leaders. Now, with the possibility of him returning to the Oval Office, leaders across the globe are watching closely to see how his reappearance might affect their countries. For some, Trump’s comeback represents a renewed opportunity, while for others, it signals the potential for rocky relationships. Here’s a look at the leaders who might benefit from Trump’s return, and those who could face challenges.

Leaders Who Could Gain from Trump’s Return

Vladimir Putin – Russia

Vladimir Putin is one leader who may look at Trump’s return as an opportunity. During Trump’s previous term, critics often accused him of adopting a softer stance on Russia compared to his predecessors. Trump’s focus on “America First” policies meant he occasionally distanced himself from traditional alliances, which, to an extent, may have given Russia more room to influence European matters.

For Putin, another Trump term might mean a chance to ease sanctions and strengthen Russia’s position, both regionally and globally. Without the same level of opposition from the U.S., Putin could push forward his strategic interests in areas like Eastern Europe. Trump’s past skepticism toward NATO and other international alliances could also play into Putin’s hands, allowing him to operate with more freedom on the world stage.

Kim Jong-un – North Korea

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, may also look forward to Trump’s return. During Trump’s presidency, the world witnessed unprecedented diplomatic moments, including face-to-face meetings between a sitting U.S. president and the North Korean leader. While these talks didn’t resolve all issues, they opened up channels for dialogue that had long been closed.

If Trump returns, Kim might hope to rekindle this personal diplomacy. For North Korea, that could mean easing some of the pressures from economic sanctions and regaining a bit of control over its future. Even if Trump’s approach doesn’t lead to concrete changes, the sheer willingness to engage could give Kim some much-needed flexibility on the world stage.

Narendra Modi – India

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi might see positive effects from a Trump presidency. The Trump-Modi relationship was marked by a focus on strengthening U.S.-India ties, both economically and strategically. Trump’s stance on China aligned with Modi’s interests, especially concerning regional security and trade issues. With a shared skepticism toward China’s growing influence, a Trump return could bolster India’s strategic standing in Asia, reinforce defense cooperation, and encourage trade agreements favorable to India.

">

Mohammed bin Salman – Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) could see a Trump comeback as a positive development. Trump maintained a close relationship with Saudi Arabia during his term, supporting their regional goals and approving substantial arms deals. Trump’s administration tended to overlook issues that could have strained ties, focusing instead on a strong strategic partnership.

If Trump returns, MBS might expect a similar hands-off approach on internal Saudi matters, like human rights, while anticipating continued support for his economic and political ambitions in the Middle East. With a U.S. administration likely to stay out of Saudi’s internal affairs, MBS would have more freedom to pursue his plans without as much scrutiny or opposition.

Benjamin Netanyahu – Israel

Another world leader who could stand to benefit is Benjamin Netanyahu, the former Prime Minister of Israel. Trump’s administration was marked by policies that significantly favored Israel, such as the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and support for the Abraham Accords, which aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations.

If Trump makes a return, Netanyahu, or any similarly minded Israeli leader, might hope to see continued U.S. support for Israel’s regional stance. This backing could provide Israel with the leverage it needs to strengthen its position in the Middle East and maintain security interests. With a Trump-led U.S., Israel could anticipate a return to a cooperative, supportive relationship.

Leaders Who Might Lose from Trump’s Return

Xi Jinping – China

China’s President Xi Jinping might not be thrilled about the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House. Trump’s administration took a firm stance against China, especially in the realms of trade and technology. With tariffs and restrictions, the U.S. and China found themselves in a trade war that rattled both economies.

A Trump comeback could mean more confrontations on issues such as economic competition, human rights, and Taiwan’s sovereignty. Xi’s government, which seeks to assert China’s place as a leading global power, would likely face renewed challenges if Trump resumes his previous approach. Given Trump’s inclination to limit China’s influence, a return to the Oval Office could disrupt Xi’s long-term vision for China’s global role.

European Union Leaders – Germany and France

Europe’s leaders, especially in Germany and France, found Trump’s foreign policies disruptive during his last term. Trump frequently criticized NATO, questioned the value of longstanding alliances, and pushed for European countries to contribute more to defense costs. This put a strain on relationships that European leaders like Angela Merkel worked hard to cultivate.

If Trump returns, the successors of these European leaders, who prioritize stability and multilateral cooperation, could see strained transatlantic relations. Germany and France, as central players in the EU, would likely be concerned about Trump’s approach to issues like NATO, climate change, and trade agreements. These leaders, focused on cooperation and unity, might face tough decisions as Trump challenges established partnerships.

Justin Trudeau – Canada

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a sometimes contentious relationship with Trump, mainly over trade and economic issues. Trump’s “America First” mantra often left Canada’s interests vulnerable, particularly in the form of tariffs on Canadian goods and disagreements over trade agreements.

If Trump returns to power, Trudeau might brace for a repeat of those challenges. Canada and the U.S. have a close, interdependent relationship, so any changes in U.S. policies can have major effects on Canada’s economy. A Trump presidency could reintroduce the unpredictability Trudeau worked to smooth out in recent years, posing new obstacles for Canadian businesses and the broader economy.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador – Mexico

Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) could also face difficulties if Trump returns. Trump’s policies on immigration and the southern border led to tense relations between the two countries. With a hardline stance on border security and the building of a border wall, Trump placed significant pressure on Mexico to manage migration.

AMLO might anticipate similar demands if Trump makes a comeback, leading to renewed friction over immigration policies and economic cooperation. Trump’s return could add to the pressure on AMLO’s administration to cooperate on border issues in ways that might not align with Mexico’s interests.

A Changing Global Landscape

Trump’s return to the White House would undoubtedly create a new global dynamic, potentially shifting power balances and affecting longstanding alliances. Leaders who found a friend in Trump might prepare to rekindle those alliances, while those who clashed with him might brace for a return to confrontations and challenges. The reshaping of international relations could have lasting effects on diplomacy and global cooperation.

In a world where stability and predictability are often essential for diplomatic relations, the return of a polarizing figure like Trump adds a layer of unpredictability. For leaders around the world, Trump’s comeback would require adapting to new policies and shifting alliances. Some may see it as a chance to strengthen their own positions, while others might face setbacks as they navigate changing U.S. policies.